US Midterms: Democrats Hold the Edge as Americans Vote in Referendum on Trump

Americans are voting today, Tuesday 3 November 2026, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump's second term. All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot, along with high-profile races for governor.

WHO HAS THE UPPER HAND Final polls point to the Democrats. A national NBC News poll taken 28–30 October found registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by 52% to 45%, a 7-point lead that grew by 2 points in a month. Democrats lead by 21 points among independents. About 3% of voters were still undecided.

On Monday the nonpartisan Cook Political Report issued its final ratings, rating Democrat Abdul El-Sayed favoured in Michigan's Senate race. With that, Cook now sees Democrats as favoured to win the Senate, according to The Washington Post. Cook also says the list of competitive House races has grown and moved further in Democrats' favour.

WHY REPUBLICANS AREN'T FINISHED The picture isn't all one-sided. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, and most of the battlefield is in states and districts Trump won in 2024, some by double digits. NBC's poll found Republican voters in GOP-held areas are sticking with their party. Voters also rate the two parties about evenly on key issues, and the Democratic Party itself remains unpopular. NBC's Decision Desk lists five Senate races as toss-ups.

THE TRUMP FACTOR Trump's disapproval has reached 60% in the NBC poll, the highest it has been across both his terms, with approval at 40%. About three in four voters are unhappy with the economy, and nearly two-thirds want a change from the direction he has taken the country. Half want "a great deal" of change, a record in NBC's polling. In his only speech on Monday, at the Lincoln Memorial, Trump spoke more about monuments and renovations than about the election.

LIKELY OUTCOMES 1. Democrats win the House, the most likely result in the polls. They would gain the power to block Trump's bills, control spending fights and open investigations into his administration. 2. Democrats win both chambers. This would also give them control of Senate confirmations for judges and cabinet posts, a major blow to Trump's agenda. 3. Republicans hold the Senate. If the GOP's Trump-friendly map holds, they could keep the Senate even while losing the House, leaving Congress split.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR TRUMP A Democratic House would likely turn Trump into a president who governs mainly through executive orders for his last two years, while facing subpoenas and oversight hearings. Losing the Senate as well would put his nominees at risk. A better-than-expected Republican night would be read as a vote of confidence in his agenda heading into the 2028 race.

WHEN WE'LL KNOW The first polls close at 6pm Eastern (midnight in Lagos) in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. The last close at midnight Eastern in Alaska and Hawaii. Close races may take days to call. Polls are estimates, not results. Civique News will update this story as official counts come in.